Gold and silver’s historic price rises are raising questions about the broader state of the world.
For Mark Moss, the surges reflect a deeper breakdown of trust in sovereign currencies.
“The real driver is not inflation,” the investor and commentator emphasized during a fireside chat at the recent Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. “The real driver is trust.”
Many investors remain focused on short-term price signals and conventional indicators, such as real interest rates, while overlooking deeper forces shaping capital allocation. According to Moss, the current state of the market favors long-term allocation. In his view, conviction — not timing — should guide investment decisions.
“You can’t borrow someone else’s conviction,” he said. “You have to start to learn to build your own thesis, and then you have to learn to look to find things that either confirm that thesis or deny that thesis.”
Precious metals are continuing a powerful price rally that began last year.
The gold price broke above US$5,500 per ounce for the first time on Wednesday (January 28), while silver broke through the triple-digit level last week and has continued rising, passing US$119 per ounce.
These moves are happening amid escalating geopolitical and policy uncertainty. However, Moss cautioned against focusing on shorter-term gold and silver price drivers, instead pointing to what he described as a fundamental dilemma facing governments with rising debt burdens — a dynamic he said is reshaping global capital flows.
Referencing comments by hedge fund founder Ray Dalio at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Moss described a “rock and a hard place” scenario. Governments face a choice between allowing debt crises that risk defaults and asset collapses, or continuing to expand money supply in ways that erode purchasing power.
“Either they have option one, the rock, which is a sovereign debt crisis, asset prices plunging — that’s what everybody’s kind of thinking. The markets are going to crash. My home values, my retirement value is going to crash. But the problem with that is they lose everything. They get wiped out, they have massive civil unrest,’ he said.
“And then the hard place is they can print the money. And so of course, they’ll always choose to bring the money.’
As a result, large institutional and sovereign investors face losses whether governments default or inflate, prompting a reassessment of traditional reserve assets. Moss said gold has emerged as one response to that reassessment, alongside broader interest in commodities and critical minerals. He further pointed to continued central bank gold buying as a signal that confidence in fiat currencies and the post-war financial order is weakening.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks have been purchasing gold at record levels in recent years.
Moss cited Poland as a notable example, describing it as a close US ally that has nonetheless been accumulating gold aggressively. Other large entities are following the same strategy — Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, recently revealed that part of its long-term plan is the stockpiling of gold in a Swiss bunker.
Gold’s rally is built on a strong multi-year advance. After starting 2025 at around US$2,640, the price had climbed to roughly US$3,200 by April before trading in a narrow range through the summer.
Momentum returned in late August, carrying gold above US$4,300 by mid-October. While the price briefly dipped below US$4,000 during a subsequent pullback, the retracement proved shallower and shorter than many market watchers expected. Gold resumed its ascent in mid-November and accelerated sharply toward the end of 2025.
Right now, the status quo is in favor of precious metals.
Regardless, Moss returned to the importance of taking a long-term perspective, stating that investors who fixate on short-term price moves risk missing the broader shift underway as trust dynamics change across the global economy.
“If you’re trying to understand why the price of gold dipped from US$5,000 and now it’s US$4,800, I can’t really help you with that,” Moss said. “But we understand the direction that’s at hand.”
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.